USD/MXN: Peso at risk of falling if Banxico minutes lack arguments for accelerated hikes – Commerzbank

In Mexico, Thursday’s publication of the minutes of the May meeting might provide further insights into the diverging views on future rate developments. In absence of hawkish arguments pointing towards accelerated rate hikes, the peso could come under pressure, economists at Commerzbank report.

How hawkish will the Banxico minutes sound today?

“The majority of the central bankers had voted in favour of a 50bp rate hike to now 7% with one member favouring a larger step. Banxico’s hawkish approach had further fuelled the market’s rate expectations, quite a few market participants seem to expect a larger rate step in June. That means a lot seems to have been priced in already, which is also reflected in the robust peso.” 

“We see the risk of small peso losses if the minutes are not characterised by hawkish arguments which point towards accelerated rate hikes.”