USD/TRY to see a dip towards the 8.10-8.15 area – Credit Suisse

The trend in USD/TRY in recent weeks has been firmly on the downside despite a few setbacks. Economists at Credit Suisse drop their USD/TRY 9.10 target for Q3 and mark the 8.10-8.15 area in the pair as a possible short-term target in case markets remain reluctant to price in meaningful rate cuts.

Q3 USD/TRY target of 9.10 looks too high

“We drop our USD/TRY 9.10 target for Q3, which looks too high compared with the current spot level and given that the probability of a policy rate cut at the 23 September meeting is much reduced after inflation surprised on the upside.”

“We mark the 8.10-8.15 area in USD/TRY as a possible short-term target in case markets remain reluctant to price in meaningful rate cuts.”