US Q2 GDP and CBR decision amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

According to Danske Bank analysts, it will be a rather thin calendar day ahead, flavoured by US Q2 GDP and the rate decision from Bank of Russia.

Key Quotes

“In Europe, consumer and economic sentiment data for France and Italy are due for release.”

“The US BEA will release its advance report on Q2 19 GDP. The Bloomberg consensus median expects a slowdown in annualised growth to 1.8% q/q from the previous 3.1% q/q, while we forecast GDP grew at an annualised rate of 2.3% in Q2 19, led by robust consumer spending and government expenditures. The latter component growth is likely to be derived from a rebound in federal government hours after the negative contribution of the long shutdown in Q1 19.”

“The Bank of Russia (the CBR) will announce its decision on the key rate. In line with Bloomberg consensus, we expect a 25bp cut today to 7.25%, as inflation has continued to decelerate closer to the 4.0% central bank target. The CBR has earlier joined the global monetary easing race and it is likely to deliver at least another 25bp hike in 2019 in order to support moderate economic growth.”