Back
17 Apr 2014
EUR/AUD faces end of bearish cycle move - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - EUR/AUD price action indicates an end of the bearish cycle seen in early 2014, according to Tim Riddell, Head of Market Research at ANZ.
Key Quotes
"Despite the altering longer-term profiles, AUD gains are seen as ending their current cycle, as outlined above. This is also apparent in other AUD crosses."
"EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD have experienced deeper pullbacks over the past quarter than had been initially anticipated, but these moves are still considered to be corrective (even if they turn out to be part of broader consolidation patterns)."
"The technical profiles of these corrections again suggest that AUD gains are mature, at risk of at least interim retracements, and potentially could incur full reversals of the more recent gains. Interim rebounds in both EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD need to be closely monitored to determine whether more AUD is poised for a period of general pullbacks."
"Pullbacks from 1.5835 had been expected to hold within a retracement area of 1.4750-1.4950. Although this area has been broken, EUR/AUD slippage has become less dynamic over the past two weeks and daily RSIs (though not yet turning) have started to display divergence."
"An interim rebound above 1.4780 could be enough to trigger a change in trend (confirmed above 1.4965) and indicate retracements back towards the 1.5240-50 area (50% of the slide from 1.5835 and also a notable, long-term retracement level)."
Key Quotes
"Despite the altering longer-term profiles, AUD gains are seen as ending their current cycle, as outlined above. This is also apparent in other AUD crosses."
"EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD have experienced deeper pullbacks over the past quarter than had been initially anticipated, but these moves are still considered to be corrective (even if they turn out to be part of broader consolidation patterns)."
"The technical profiles of these corrections again suggest that AUD gains are mature, at risk of at least interim retracements, and potentially could incur full reversals of the more recent gains. Interim rebounds in both EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD need to be closely monitored to determine whether more AUD is poised for a period of general pullbacks."
"Pullbacks from 1.5835 had been expected to hold within a retracement area of 1.4750-1.4950. Although this area has been broken, EUR/AUD slippage has become less dynamic over the past two weeks and daily RSIs (though not yet turning) have started to display divergence."
"An interim rebound above 1.4780 could be enough to trigger a change in trend (confirmed above 1.4965) and indicate retracements back towards the 1.5240-50 area (50% of the slide from 1.5835 and also a notable, long-term retracement level)."