The rouble could easily fall another 2-3% - ING
"Russian assets have sold off heavily over the last 24 hours on the back of two US sanctions stories. The mood in the US Congress towards Russia certainly seems more aggressive and less predictable," ING analysts note.
Key quotes
"In response, the rouble has sold off 4% against the dollar over the last 24 hours. Modelling the rouble is a challenging task in light of sanctions and the Finance Ministry’s budget rule, which seeks to convert excess oil and gas revenues into hard currency. That said, ING's Petr Krpata has put a short-term financial fair value model together which tries to identify the amount of risk premium in the currency."
"Based on the way the rouble has traded this year, the model suggests it could easily fall another 2-3% to match the risk premium seen in April when the US published secondary sanctions against Russian oligarchs and related businesses. Additionally, data put together by ING's Viraj Patel shows that asset managers are still running relatively large net long RUB positions – which could change were sanctions rhetoric to heighten over coming months."