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1 Apr 2014
USD/JPY 107.00 on a 6 months view - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at Rabobank noted that the USD/JPY hit its recent 105.44 high in early January and now see USD/JPY at 107.00 on a 6 mth view.
Key Quotes:
“At that time (Jan high 105.44) the market was anticipating the Nov/Dec rally to continue towards Y110 and beyond. CFTC data suggest that speculators at that time were holding the highest level of short positions since 2007 and a round of short covering instead took hold”.
“Since then, the level of shorts has halved meaning that market participants may now be better prepared to take on fresh yen short positions”.
“While we expect USD/JPY to head higher, the pace of any upside will depend on the trajectory of the USD. This means an improvement in US data could be another instrumental influence in USD/JPY near-term”.
Key Quotes:
“At that time (Jan high 105.44) the market was anticipating the Nov/Dec rally to continue towards Y110 and beyond. CFTC data suggest that speculators at that time were holding the highest level of short positions since 2007 and a round of short covering instead took hold”.
“Since then, the level of shorts has halved meaning that market participants may now be better prepared to take on fresh yen short positions”.
“While we expect USD/JPY to head higher, the pace of any upside will depend on the trajectory of the USD. This means an improvement in US data could be another instrumental influence in USD/JPY near-term”.