EUR/USD end of the up move below 1.2110 – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested the pair could now struggle for direction although a close south of 1.2110 should indicate the move higher is over.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD has eroded resistance offered by the 1.2355 26th February high. The market has recently bounced just ahead of the 1.2110 2017-2018 uptrend and the 1.2092 September high. It should be noted that we now have a market stuck between a one year uptrend and a 10 year downtrend. This may provoke some sharp swings while the market works out if this is the end of EUR/USD strength or not. I am slightly biased to failure, but I am not married to the view. Near term Elliott wave counts have neutralised so we have raised stops and bought down our take profit”.

“A close below 1.2110 will be needed to confirm the end of the move higher”.

“Above the 2008-2018 resistance line at 1.2651 would target 1.3190 the 50% retracement of the move down from 2008”.