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CME Group FedWatch's June hike probability drew close to 90% on US Data

CME Group FedWatch tool, which calculates unconditional probabilities of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes to generate a binary probability tree, shows that the probability of a June rate hike on Friday leaped to 87.7% from 83% on Thursday as today's data showed that the increase in consumer spending continued to boost the GDP growth in the U.S. Furthermore, recently released strong earning reports from big retailers such as Best Buy and Macy's have been also supportive of that assessment. 

  • US: Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.2% in the first quarter of 2017
  • US: The PCE price index increased 2.4% in first quarter of 2017
  • US: Consumer sentiment remains solid since Trump's election - UoM

What has changed in EM - BBH

Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers, shares his views on the emerging markets: "Moody's downgraded China's rating from
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Consumer sentiment holds near its recent high - Wells Fargo

Analysts at Wells Fargo noted that the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index rose 0.1 point to 97.1 in May and remains roughly even with i
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