ECB Minutes and German GDP estimate in focus today - TDS

Analysts at TDS suggest that for data today, we get the German 2016 GDP estimate, which we can use to back out the Q4 GDP print.

Key Quotes

“We’re currently tracking 0.4% q/q for Q4 GDP, which would leave 2016 GDP at 1.8%, a bit lower than the consensus forecast of 1.9%.”

“We also get the minutes from the ECB’s December meeting today, which should be a bit more interesting than usual given the importance of that meeting. While there has still been some speculation that the ECB could start reducing its QE purchases below €60bn before the end of the year, particularly after last week’s elevated inflation readings for December, we think that the minutes are more likely to show a very firm commitment to the “sustained market presence” that Draghi highlighted in the press conference, leaving a more dovish tone overall.”