Aussie retail sales preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7420, up 0.02% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7423 and low at 0.7413.

AUD/USD has made a minor recovery and correction of the sell-off from 0.7170 to the low of 0.7041 with the US dollar index 0.3% lower, despite further improved data and a fall in bond prices.

Analysts at ANZ explained that the global bond markets have moved from the bulls having the upper hoof to the bears having the upper paw with more and more signs the 35 year bull market in bonds has come to an end. "The yield on a US 10 year Treasury has lifted 63 basis points since November 1 and is up around 100 basis points in the past couple of months."

In respect of Australian retail sales today, analysts at Westpac noted better gains through Aug/Sep, albeit driven by prices rather than volumes. "We expect a 0.3% gain in Oct."

AUD/USD levels to monitor

The analysts at Westpac noted AUD/USD is consolidating between 0.7310 and 0.7500 during the past two weeks and suggested that surprises from AU retail sales and US payrolls data will dictate which bound it attracts to today. Preview of the employment report - Nomura

"AUD/USD 1-3 month: The US dollar has had an impressive rise since the US election and has potential to rise further during the months ahead, not least because the Fed will probably hike in December. Against that, coal and iron ore are more likely to sustain their dramatic rises during the months ahead. We target 0.73."

Current price is 0.7420, with resistance ahead at 0.7422 (Yesterday's High), 0.7423 (Daily High), 0.7423 (Hourly 200 SMA), 0.7446 (Hourly 100 SMA) and 0.7463 (Daily Classic R1).

Next support to the downside can be found at 0.7419 (Daily Classic PP), 0.7419 (Daily Open), 0.7413 (Daily Low), 0.7409 (Weekly Classic PP) and 0.7406 (Hourly 20 EMA).