Outlook for US: room for growth in H2 2016 - Nomura

Analysts offered their outlook for the U.S. economy ahead.

Key Quotes:

• "We see a bit more room for growth in H2 2016 from solid consumer demand but inventories will remain a drag.
• We expect the economy to “overshoot” full employment to some extent, facilitating more inflationary pressure.
• But core inflation should rise only slowly due to lingering effects of the stronger dollar and lower NAIRU.
• We expect the economy to gradually slow to potential output growth, which we estimate to be 1.5%, by end-2018.
• We believe potential growth will be low due to weak productivity growth and the structural decline of the LFPR.
• Given our economic outlook, we believe the most likely timing of the next Fed hike is December 2016.
• Tighter financial conditions, further appreciation of the dollar and slowdown in global growth remain the key risks."

The big bluff in the era of Central Bank monetary socialism