Forex Flash: Forecasts for this week's central banks policies – TD Securities

Investors will be trading central bank policies this week, including the BOJ, RBA, BoC, ECB, and BoE, among others. "We see all ten central banks unchanged, but our general bias remains for more central bank support of economies", wrote TD Securities analysts, placing a roughly 1/3 chance of any of the following: the ECB cuts the refi rate on softer forecasts; the BoE resumes QE (pending services PMI on Tuesday); the BoC strikes an even more dovish tone in their communiqué than we expect; the RBA preemptively cuts rates this week rather than our call for June; Poland cuts rates 25bps rather an our out of consensus call for them to stay unchanged as their rhetoric suggests they want to at least pause on new forecasts; Banxico cuts rates, as the market is roughly 50% priced for a 25bps cut over the next three months (however we see them unchanged this week after comments from Deputy Gov Sanchez last week suggested no room to cut and we like being short BRL/MXN into the decision).