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2 Sep 2015
AUD/USD: bears doing their best at protected 0.7000 level
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD dropped through the 0.7000 level for a second time to 0.6986 for a new low on the back of the poor GDP Q2 data that arrived as 2.0% vs 2.2% expected Y/Y and 0.2% vs 0.45 M/M.
The price in AUD/USD quickly reversed with big protection at this level, but remains very threatening and heavy still five minutes after the release and idles the 0.7000 level. Moments before the release, SHCOMP opened down 4.4%, and continues lower at -6% at time of writing, 15 mins after the GDP data, and before that, the PBoC set the yuan reference rate at 6.3619. The S&P 500 futures are still performing nicely through the Tokyo session which should keep the greenback on the front foot and leaves the Aussie and key 0.7000 handle exposed to the downside.
AUD/USD may not get any further support on RBA
Yesterday, the RBA was comfortable with the Australian economy as continuing along its “moderate expansion" and also with the the value of the Aussie having not remarked so we can only presume that they see it continuing to adjust to the prices of commodities. However, the market turmoil exposes the Aussie to the downside on the back of the negative implications to the RBA's growth and inflation forecasts, thus potentially requiring further easing from the Central Bank to support the economy at some point in the future, and perhaps sooner than later, especially if the Fed cannot find an appropriate time to hike rates this year due to the weakening growth outlook for China and Asia.
AUD/USD: what will it take for lower?
The next trigger point, besides momentum and perhaps a run on stops, comes in fundamentals in the Nonfarm Payrolls this week that is tipped to be positive and favourable to the US dollar bulls. A breach of 0.6980/0.7000 opens up 0.6776, the June 2004 low.
The price in AUD/USD quickly reversed with big protection at this level, but remains very threatening and heavy still five minutes after the release and idles the 0.7000 level. Moments before the release, SHCOMP opened down 4.4%, and continues lower at -6% at time of writing, 15 mins after the GDP data, and before that, the PBoC set the yuan reference rate at 6.3619. The S&P 500 futures are still performing nicely through the Tokyo session which should keep the greenback on the front foot and leaves the Aussie and key 0.7000 handle exposed to the downside.
AUD/USD may not get any further support on RBA
Yesterday, the RBA was comfortable with the Australian economy as continuing along its “moderate expansion" and also with the the value of the Aussie having not remarked so we can only presume that they see it continuing to adjust to the prices of commodities. However, the market turmoil exposes the Aussie to the downside on the back of the negative implications to the RBA's growth and inflation forecasts, thus potentially requiring further easing from the Central Bank to support the economy at some point in the future, and perhaps sooner than later, especially if the Fed cannot find an appropriate time to hike rates this year due to the weakening growth outlook for China and Asia.
AUD/USD: what will it take for lower?
The next trigger point, besides momentum and perhaps a run on stops, comes in fundamentals in the Nonfarm Payrolls this week that is tipped to be positive and favourable to the US dollar bulls. A breach of 0.6980/0.7000 opens up 0.6776, the June 2004 low.