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22 Jun 2015
EM central bank activity this week – BBH
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The research team at BBH gives a view of the upcoming central bank meetings in the next sessions.
Key Quotes
“Turkey central bank meets Tuesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 7.5%. With inflation still too high and the lira very weak, we think steady policy is warranted. After losing so many seats in the elections, we think Erdogan and the AKP government may now refrain from criticizing the central bank if it keeps policy tight”.
“Hungary central bank meets Tuesday and is expected to cut rates 15 bp to 1.5%. With CPI inflation moving back into positive territory and likely to move higher due to low base effects, we think this may be the last rate cut in this cycle”.
“Colombia central bank meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 4.5%. GDP growth slowed to 2.8% y/y in Q1, while April retail sales and IP contracted y/y, suggesting Q2 will be even weaker. We think high inflation is keeping the central bank on hold for now, but that it will tilt more dovish in H2”.
“Czech central bank meets Thursday and is expected to keep policy steady. With inflation moving higher and the real sector gaining strength, we think the central bank will no longer extend its forward guidance and will instead stick with the current pledge to keep current loose policies in place until “at least H2 2016.”
Key Quotes
“Turkey central bank meets Tuesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 7.5%. With inflation still too high and the lira very weak, we think steady policy is warranted. After losing so many seats in the elections, we think Erdogan and the AKP government may now refrain from criticizing the central bank if it keeps policy tight”.
“Hungary central bank meets Tuesday and is expected to cut rates 15 bp to 1.5%. With CPI inflation moving back into positive territory and likely to move higher due to low base effects, we think this may be the last rate cut in this cycle”.
“Colombia central bank meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 4.5%. GDP growth slowed to 2.8% y/y in Q1, while April retail sales and IP contracted y/y, suggesting Q2 will be even weaker. We think high inflation is keeping the central bank on hold for now, but that it will tilt more dovish in H2”.
“Czech central bank meets Thursday and is expected to keep policy steady. With inflation moving higher and the real sector gaining strength, we think the central bank will no longer extend its forward guidance and will instead stick with the current pledge to keep current loose policies in place until “at least H2 2016.”