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20 Aug 2013
RBA minutes next: Impact on the AUD/USD
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - AUD/USD has been the main mover ahead of the Tokyo open, with an initial bullish run off 0.9105 led by exporters topping at 0.9131 before further liquidation towards 0.9113, where it consolidates.
Bank sources suggest order book is very light on the downside with demand down between 0.90 and 0.904. Some light stops continue to be reported above 0.9250, which remain intact after yesterday's topside failure at 0.9238.
While the tech picture was fairly constructive pre-selloff Monday, the strong bearish close on the daily is highly suspicious of a market that may attempt to start fading rallies towards 0.92 aiming for new weekly lows, with losses to intensify should 0.9080 give up, with would then bring into play mentioned demand between 0.90 - 9040 ahead of an eventual retest of trend lows.
Keep an eye on the RBA Minutes at 1.30GMT, which should be interesting since the Monetary Policy Statement on August 9 sounded less dovish-than-expected after no mention of "inflation outlook may provide some scope for further easing…”.
However, the SMP also noted "recent price and wage data do not suggest any lessening of the scope to ease from an inflation point of view”. Markets would like clarification in order to whether or not keep pricing further rate cuts.
Bank sources suggest order book is very light on the downside with demand down between 0.90 and 0.904. Some light stops continue to be reported above 0.9250, which remain intact after yesterday's topside failure at 0.9238.
While the tech picture was fairly constructive pre-selloff Monday, the strong bearish close on the daily is highly suspicious of a market that may attempt to start fading rallies towards 0.92 aiming for new weekly lows, with losses to intensify should 0.9080 give up, with would then bring into play mentioned demand between 0.90 - 9040 ahead of an eventual retest of trend lows.
Keep an eye on the RBA Minutes at 1.30GMT, which should be interesting since the Monetary Policy Statement on August 9 sounded less dovish-than-expected after no mention of "inflation outlook may provide some scope for further easing…”.
However, the SMP also noted "recent price and wage data do not suggest any lessening of the scope to ease from an inflation point of view”. Markets would like clarification in order to whether or not keep pricing further rate cuts.