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2 Apr 2015
HUF and PLN preferred to RON – JP Morgan
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The research team at JP Morgan expressed its preference for the Hungarian forint and the Polish Zloty vs. the Romanian leu.
Key Quotes
“We see further scope for both HUF and PLN to outperform RON in the short run”.
“In Hungary, a still large basic balance surplus coupled with a significant slowdown in external bank deleveraging and the potential for ECB QE related bond portfolio inflows should be supportive for the currency even in the face of further moderate cuts from the NBH”.
“In Poland, the declaration by the MPC that the easing cycle has ended coupled with the pick up in Euro area activity is supporting inflows into the currency”.
“We think EUR/PLN can appreciate towards 4.00 before the MPC becomes concerned about FX appreciation feeding into Polish inflation dynamics”.
“The central bank is likely to intervene to cap EUR/RON gains beyond 4.40 in our view”.
Key Quotes
“We see further scope for both HUF and PLN to outperform RON in the short run”.
“In Hungary, a still large basic balance surplus coupled with a significant slowdown in external bank deleveraging and the potential for ECB QE related bond portfolio inflows should be supportive for the currency even in the face of further moderate cuts from the NBH”.
“In Poland, the declaration by the MPC that the easing cycle has ended coupled with the pick up in Euro area activity is supporting inflows into the currency”.
“We think EUR/PLN can appreciate towards 4.00 before the MPC becomes concerned about FX appreciation feeding into Polish inflation dynamics”.
“The central bank is likely to intervene to cap EUR/RON gains beyond 4.40 in our view”.