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30 Mar 2015
USD/JPY: choppy ride to 125 by year-end – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Taisuke Tanaka, Strategist at Deutsche Bank, views that USD/JPY uptrend might receive sustained support from Japanese investors mainly led by pensions, and further forecasts the pair to reach 125 by 2015-end and 130 by 2016-end.
Key Quotes
“We believe Japanese investors led by pensions are likely to continue steadily accumulating foreign securities and see this supporting the uptrend in the USD/JPY.”
“However, lifers and toshins are unlikely to rush into a rally above 120, but will rather dispassionately look for an appropriate buying opportunity. On the other hand, as pensions approach their new asset allocation ratios, their buying activity may be slowing down.”
“We believe Japanese capital outflows will keep the USD/JPY on an upward trajectory this year and next. However, taking into account the momentum of Japanese investments overseas, we expect the USD/JPY uptrend to be milder than last year and follow a zigzag pattern on its way to hit 125 at the end-2015, and 130 at end-2016.”
Key Quotes
“We believe Japanese investors led by pensions are likely to continue steadily accumulating foreign securities and see this supporting the uptrend in the USD/JPY.”
“However, lifers and toshins are unlikely to rush into a rally above 120, but will rather dispassionately look for an appropriate buying opportunity. On the other hand, as pensions approach their new asset allocation ratios, their buying activity may be slowing down.”
“We believe Japanese capital outflows will keep the USD/JPY on an upward trajectory this year and next. However, taking into account the momentum of Japanese investments overseas, we expect the USD/JPY uptrend to be milder than last year and follow a zigzag pattern on its way to hit 125 at the end-2015, and 130 at end-2016.”