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6 Jan 2015
Dec US employment index drops, but keeps Fed hike expectations unchanged – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Rob Carnell of ING, notes that the US non-manufacturing ISM came out weaker than expectations and the employment index registered a marginal dip, keeping the Fed hike expectations on course for a Q2 15 rate hike.
Key Quotes
“The US non-manufacturing ISM index for December (56.2) was somewhat weaker than consensus expectations (58.0, INGf 58.4), and was a little surprising as this contemporaneous indicator of retail strength should be receiving good support from both lower oil prices and a buoyant labour market. Recent car sales strength is a reflection of this.”
“But in any case, it is the employment index of this survey that we usually look at, and this dipped fairly marginally to 56.0 from 56.7 back in November, and is in our view still consistent with a decent, albeit somewhat less robust payrolls figure in January from the 321K figure initially printed for December.”
“Consensus is currently looking for a 240K payrolls figure with a slight dip in the unemployment rate to 5.7%, and hopefully a further uptick in the wages growth rate to 2.2%. All of which, if it happens, should keep the Fed on course for a 2Q15 (June rather than April we think) first rate hike.”
Key Quotes
“The US non-manufacturing ISM index for December (56.2) was somewhat weaker than consensus expectations (58.0, INGf 58.4), and was a little surprising as this contemporaneous indicator of retail strength should be receiving good support from both lower oil prices and a buoyant labour market. Recent car sales strength is a reflection of this.”
“But in any case, it is the employment index of this survey that we usually look at, and this dipped fairly marginally to 56.0 from 56.7 back in November, and is in our view still consistent with a decent, albeit somewhat less robust payrolls figure in January from the 321K figure initially printed for December.”
“Consensus is currently looking for a 240K payrolls figure with a slight dip in the unemployment rate to 5.7%, and hopefully a further uptick in the wages growth rate to 2.2%. All of which, if it happens, should keep the Fed on course for a 2Q15 (June rather than April we think) first rate hike.”