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3 Dec 2014
NZD/USD: Negative bias, targets 0.7683/60 - Commerzbank
FXStreet (Bali) - Axel Rudolph, FX Strategist at Commerzbank, concludes that NZD/USD holds a negative bias looking for market to drop back to the .7683/60 region.
Key Quotes
"NZD/USD’s outlook is negative. It is heading back down towards the .7683 June 2013 and the current November low at .7660, having recently come off its current November high at .7976 (this is indicated to be the end of wave ‘4’). It thus fell short of the late October high at .8036 and the February low at .8051."
"The next time the .7683/60 June 2013 and November 2014 lows will be retested we would expect this area to give way."
"Once a daily chart close below the November low at .7660 has been seen, the October 2009 peak at .7637 will be targeted. Other potential downside targets are the .7456 May 2012 low and the .7371 November 2011 trough. While the .8084/.8117 July and August 2013 highs and November, December 2013 lows cap, our medium term forecast will remain bearish."
Key Quotes
"NZD/USD’s outlook is negative. It is heading back down towards the .7683 June 2013 and the current November low at .7660, having recently come off its current November high at .7976 (this is indicated to be the end of wave ‘4’). It thus fell short of the late October high at .8036 and the February low at .8051."
"The next time the .7683/60 June 2013 and November 2014 lows will be retested we would expect this area to give way."
"Once a daily chart close below the November low at .7660 has been seen, the October 2009 peak at .7637 will be targeted. Other potential downside targets are the .7456 May 2012 low and the .7371 November 2011 trough. While the .8084/.8117 July and August 2013 highs and November, December 2013 lows cap, our medium term forecast will remain bearish."