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10 Nov 2014
Statement helps stabilise USD/RUB for now - BTMU
Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Market Research notes that the USD/RUB suffered extreme volatility on Friday, initially rising to an intra-day high of 48.629 before then falling to an intra-day low of 45.673, a high-to-low swing of 6.1%.
Key Quotes
"The rebound of the rouble was triggered by the rumours of central bank action but in the end the only action was a statement released warning that the Bank of Russia was “prepared to increase FX interventions at any moment, as well as to use other financial market instruments available”.”
“They describe the move as being fuelled by “feverish demand” suggesting a belief that speculative selling may now be reinforcing the fundamental reasons for rouble weakness – the falling price of oil and limited access to capital markets.”
“Certainly crude oil prices in the second half of last week has rebounded modestly while the introduction of dollar liquidity supplying operations by the Bank of Russia has helped ease the premium paid for switching from roubles to dollars.
“Still, the Russian authorities in the statement reiterated its plan to move to a full free float and the rouble is likely to undergo renewed selling pressure in the days ahead until Friday’s words threatening intervention actually turn to action. Intervention may then have a greater chance of success if speculative positioning reaches an extreme.”
Key Quotes
"The rebound of the rouble was triggered by the rumours of central bank action but in the end the only action was a statement released warning that the Bank of Russia was “prepared to increase FX interventions at any moment, as well as to use other financial market instruments available”.”
“They describe the move as being fuelled by “feverish demand” suggesting a belief that speculative selling may now be reinforcing the fundamental reasons for rouble weakness – the falling price of oil and limited access to capital markets.”
“Certainly crude oil prices in the second half of last week has rebounded modestly while the introduction of dollar liquidity supplying operations by the Bank of Russia has helped ease the premium paid for switching from roubles to dollars.
“Still, the Russian authorities in the statement reiterated its plan to move to a full free float and the rouble is likely to undergo renewed selling pressure in the days ahead until Friday’s words threatening intervention actually turn to action. Intervention may then have a greater chance of success if speculative positioning reaches an extreme.”