Fed: A hike after July is highly unlikely – Rabobank

Economists at Rabobank analyze the minutes of the FOMC meeting on June 13-14.

Skipper Powell needs a minute

The minutes of the June 13-14 meeting of the FOMC reveal that some participants actually wanted to raise rates. In contrast, at the press conference on June 14, Powell said he wanted a more moderate pace.  

Meanwhile, the Fed staff seems less convinced of its recession forecast. Or is this pressure from the FOMC?  

Finally, in a show of thought control, the minutes did not use the words ‘skip’ or ‘pause.’ So, whatever it was in June: it was neither a skip nor a pause.  

Looking ahead, we continue to have our doubts about a second rate hike after July, as long as Powell clings to a more moderate pace of the hiking cycle.