USD/CNY: Yuan set to recover, current weakness not seen as structural – ANZ

Economists at ANZ Bank share their USD/CNY forecasts.

Fed’s hiking cycle will be done in the latter part of the year

We do not see the current Yuan weakness as structural. 

In the latter part of the year, the Fed’s hiking cycle will be done, and markets will start to price in rate cuts, eroding support for the USD. 

The current bout of pessimism towards China’s growth will ease, and we expect portfolio flows to resume. This will set the stage for the Yuan to recover.

USD/CNY (end of period) – 2023 6.80 2024 6.60 2025 6.50