S&P 500 to hold below the 4195 YTD high and turn lower – Credit Suisse

Economists at Credit Suisse discuss S&P 500 outlook. They expect the index to move downward. 

Move above 4195 to clear the way for a test of 4312/4325

“S&P 500 has retested and again rejected key resistance from the 4195 YTD high and with daily RSI and MACD momentum having turned lower, we think the broader risk is shifting towards a ‘risk off’ phase.”

“Below support from the recent low and 63-day average at 4054/49 is needed to confirm a near-term top for a fall to test the 200-day average, now at 3968. Indeed, a close below 4049 this Friday would also see a bearish “reversal week” established.”

“Above 4195 though would be seen to clear the way for a test of the summer 2022 high and 61.8% retracement of the entire 2022 fall at 4312/4325. We look for this to then prove a much tougher barrier and for a fresh top to be found here for a turn lower in the broader range later in Q2.”